Today’s jobs figures provide a shock as intangibles lead the way

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 216,000 jobs. Economist had predicted between 160,000 and 170,000. Payrolls in intangible producing sectors rose by 148,500 in December. In contrast, employment in goods producing sectors was up only 22,000 (only 6,000 in manufacturing) and tangible services increased by 46,000.

Once again, job growth was centered on Educational and Health Services (excluding tangible services), which increased by 66,300 and in Government (excluding Postal Service), which was up by 52,500 100. Payrolls in the tangible-producing Accommodation and Food Services sector was up by 28,000. The increase continued the tread of the past 6 months (see chart below). These three sectors provided almost 70% of the job growth in 2023.

As I noted last month, employment in the three growth sectors are all above their pre-pandemic level (Educational and Health Services (excluding tangible services), Government (excluding Postal Service), and Accommodation and Food Services). This raises a key question: how long can the three sectors continue to power the U.S. labor market?

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