Those GDP numbers

A quick note on this morning’s Gross Domestic Product data showing growth of 1.9% in the second quarter. As BEA points out, the higher growth rate compared to first quarter is due in part to increased exports and decreased imports. But this “advanced estimate” is based on only two months of trade data — June data is not yet available. And, as I pointed out when the May trade data came out, it surprised many people who were expecting a much larger deficit. So key an eye out for the “preliminary estimate” which comes out in late August to see how much the number changes with more complete data.
Update:
It is interesting to see how the media is playing the numbers. According to the Wall Street Journal – GDP Accelerates in Second Quarter On Exports, Stimulus Spending. The New York Times had a different take – G.D.P. Grows at Tepid 1.9% Pace Despite Stimulus:

The economy grew less than expected from April to June, the government said on Thursday, and it shrank in the final months of 2007, dimming the outlook for a quick recovery.

The stock market seems to also believe the news is not that good.

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